In May 2022, Republicans doubled Democrats in voter registration
by Megan Barth, The Nevada Globe, June 2, 2022
According to data from the Nevada Secretary of State’s office, predictions of a red wave in Nevada are bolstered by the latest voter registration numbers. As tweeted by Interactive Polls, the trend is stark. Adding to the Democratic dread is the increase in over 95,000 Independents to the voter rolls and, according to Civiqs, only 31% of Nevada independents approve of President Biden’s job performance.
On trend, from March to May 2022, nearly four times as many Democrats switched to the GOP.
Nevada Voter Registration: more Dems switching to GOP
Dems switched to GOP: 2,331
GOP to Dem: 665
Dem to indie: 2,431
Indie to Dem: 3,395
Indie to GOP: 5,016
NV Voter Reg Advantage:
Nov 2020: Dem +87,416
June 1, 2022: Dem +58,902
The Nevada Independent’s John Ralston laments:
Sure, Dems, they are relatively small numbers, but the trend is inexorable. If it’s a mass switching to muck around in GOP primaries, kudos for your discipline. But I don’t think so.
Combine this trend with the Repubs doubling the Dems in voter registration in May, which never happens, and the Dem statewide lead about to drop below 3 percent (this is unprecedented since…the Reagan Era?), and all of the signs are red wavy.
Recently, the Cook Political Report has shifted three out of four congressional races from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up.” CNN, MSNBC and Democratic news outlets have highlighted the mass migration from the Democratic party by Latinos who are fleeing to the GOP.
Historically, Nevada is a swing state—but not by double digit numbers. As Ralston points out, the Democratic lead has been winnowed to less than three percent. It is no wonder that Nevada has been deemed as the “epicenter of the midterms” by National Journal columnist Josh Kraushaar.
Nevada is shaping up to be the political epicenter of this year’s midterms, with the battleground state hosting a competitive governor’s race and majority-making Senate contest, while three of the state’s four House seats are likely to be among the most closely watched races on the congressional landscape.
Nevada features two of the most consequential constituencies who have been drifting away from the Democratic Party in recent years: working-class voters and Hispanics. Seen in this light, the state provides an early stress test of the party’s ability to broaden its appeal beyond its progressive base. It also tests Republicans’ ability to nominate mainstream candidates who can win over a diverse electorate, an issue that has dogged the party in the state for over a decade.
Confirmed by voter registration records, the diverse electorate in Nevada is growing as inflation hits Nevada households the hardest. Yet in spite of voter flight and crashing poll numbers, Democratic incumbents employ fearful rhetoric related to topics of climate change, abortion and gun control, which, according to the latest Gallup poll, trail economic concerns by double-digit margins.