The latest NFIB survey also shows an even tighter job market.
By James Freeman, WSJ, March 6, 2025
NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg reports that the organization’s February survey “found 38 percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 3 points from January and the highest reading since August 2024. Thirty-one percent have openings for skilled workers (up 2 points) and 13 percent have openings for unskilled labor (up 3 points).”
The NFIB economist also notes a downshift in plans for future hiring:
A seasonally adjusted net 15 percent of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 3 points from January. Job creation plans are below the levels seen the last time the economy experienced solid growth but are still in firm territory historically.
Owners continue to struggle to find qualified applicants that the owners can afford to hire. NFIB reports:
The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small
business operating problem rose 1 point from January to 19 percent. Labor costs
reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose 3 points from January to 12 percent, only 1 point below the highest reading of 13 percent reached in December 2021. The last time labor costs ranked this high was February 2023.
This is consistent with another finding from the NFIB survey:
Seasonally adjusted, a net 33 percent reported raising compensation, unchanged from January. A net 18 percent (seasonally adjusted) plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 2 points from January. Overall, there is still a lot of wage cost pressure for owners.
“Overall, economic growth appears to be slowing, but at a slow pace,” says Mr. Dunkelberg.
Not that there’s ever a bad time for pro-growth policy, but now seems like an especially good moment for a tax-cut extension and a tariff-hike cancellation.
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James Freeman is the co-author of “The Cost: Trump, China and American Revival” and also the co-author of “Borrowed Time: Two Centuries of Booms, Busts and Bailouts at Citi.”